City seeking Waste Projections Forecasting professional advice

 

Construction waste outside Junction Park

The city is undertaking a huge study on waste amount and type projections. The NOTICE TO POTENTIAL PROPONENTS, who are intersted in bidding on the contract is one of the longest and mod detailed city contract requests in years.
The blog has outlined sme basic facts about the study below the full city document can be found here. NOTICE TO POTENTIAL PROPONENTS Waste Study 2018

Objectives for the contract are stated as followed

Task 1 Current and Future Waste Composition
Task 2 Identifying and Evaluating MWPwOR Technologies
Task 3 Pilot Study
Task 4 Final Report
Task 1 Current and Future Waste Composition
Waste Projections Forecasting
The contractor must review and analyze the City’s current system and prepare a waste projections forecast of the City’s current and projected residual waste stream, Multi-residential waste stream (i.e. garbage, Green Bin Organics and Blue Bin Recycling) and combinations thereof (the “Waste Projections Forecasting”).
 
 Waste Projections Forecasting
The Proponent must review and analyze the City’s current system and prepare a waste projections forecast of the City’s current and projected residual waste stream, Multi-residential waste stream (i.e. garbage, Green Bin Organics and Blue Bin Recycling) and combinations thereof (the “Waste Projections Forecasting”). This will help focus research efforts for MWPwOR technology needs in terms of maximizing diversion and resource recovery.
The methodology used for the Waste Projections Forecasting must be outlined in the Proposal. For each stream, the Proponent should forecast generation and contamination rates using historical tonnage data, any trends identified through waste audits and at a minimum, must include the following:
a) Statistical modelling techniques to project the City’s residual waste (e.g. curbside garbage, street-litter bins, parks material, direct transfer station drop-off) , multi-residential waste stream (i.e. Blue Bin Recyclables, Green Bin Organics, garbage), and combinations thereof, including generation trends; b) Waste projection scenarios over 5, 10, 15 and 20 year periods in both tonnes/year and kg/household/year by waste stream; c) Application of the impacts of population growth, changing housing density impacts (where available), economic factors, anticipated changes to packaging (i.e. light-weighting), inflation factors, Waste Diversion Transition Act, 2016 implications (e.g. transition to extended producer responsibility impacts), global market impacts (e.g. China’s National Sword campaign) and any other factors as identified together with the City; d) A breakdown of estimated projected remaining resources (i.e. Blue Bin Recyclables, Green Bin Organics) and any other resources in the residual waste and Multi-residential waste stream available for recovery through MWPwOR over a 20 year planning horizon; e) Comparison of projections to those identified in the Waste Strategy, highlighting and providing possible explanations for any major variances; f) Calculations and estimated diversion in tonnes/year by stream and diversion rate potential of 50%, 75% and 100% of all identified remaining resources (i.e. Blue Bin Recyclables, Green Bin Organics) are recovered through a potential MWPwOR technology; g) Impacts of the potentially diverted tonnage on the remaining capacity at Green Lane Landfill (i.e. overall increase to life of landfill or impacts to existing operations contracts); and h) The impacts of the potentially diverted Green Bin Organics and Blue Bin Recyclables to the processing capacities currently available and projected future needs.
Waste Characterization Study
10 of 62
To complement the Waste Projections Forecasting, the Proponent must develop and conduct a “Sort by Size” physical waste characterization study and analysis on the City’s waste streams identified above (the “Waste Projection Forecasting”). The goal of this exercise is to gain a thorough understanding of the fine (100mm and smaller) material in the City’s waste streams and its impact on organics processing technology as well as the quality and quantity of the divertible resources available for recovery. The Waste Characterization Study will be coordinated together with support from City staff and will take place at one of the City’s waste transfer station or a location to be determined with the City facility after award based on space availability and time of year of audit. The City will supply all residual waste samples for the Waste Characterization Study. The samples will include waste from the City’s residual waste, multi-residential waste stream (i.e. Blue Bin Recyclables, Green Bin Organics, garbage) and combinations thereof.
The Proponent must identify a high-level work plan and methodology in their proposal on how this would be achieved within a budget of $150,000 per item 1B of the Price Form in Appendix D. Should the Proponent determine that this budget is not sufficient additional costs can be proposed in item 1C of the Price Form in Appendix D. This must be accompanied by a rationale on why the scope of work cannot be achieved within the recommended budget.
At a minimum, the work plan must include: a) A recommendation for the total tonnage to be sorted in order to obtain meaningful waste characterization results which is sufficient to carry out testing outlined in points “b” and “c” below; b) A plan on how to obtain a sufficient amount of fine material (below 100mm)so that the waste, once sorted, provides at least 5kg of fine material per waste stream for laboratory testing and analysis (if the Proponent does not believe 5kg is sufficient for all testing, a suggestion of sample size should be indicated in their proposed methodology ; c) Suggested laboratory analysis parameters to be conducted on recovered fine material to determine viability as feedstock for anaerobic digestion, Biogas/energy content of the fine material and remaining calorific value of the residue fraction of the waste stream; Tests should include all 11 regulated metals outlined in Ontario’s Compost Quality Standard (Arsenic, Cadmium, Chromium, Cobalt, Copper, Lead, Mercury, Molybdenum, Nickel, Selenium, Zinc), as well as Antimony, Aluminum, Barium, Beryllium, Boron, Manganese, Silver, Strontium, Sulphur, Thallium, tin, Titanium, Vanadium, nutrient analysis (Nitrogen-Phosphorous-Potassium ratio, salt levels, Carbon: Nitrogen ratio), organic pollutants Hydrocarbons, Polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), Organochlorines),Chlorobenzenes, pathogen and foreign matter content of final compost. d) A plan on how the loose and bagged fine material will be completely sorted with all bagged fine material opened and sorted with the number of bags and total bagged weight recorded; e) A plan to sort, measure and analyze all fine material sample residual waste below 100 mm and then by major material type (i.e. household hazardous waste, cardboard, mixed paper & fibre, ferrous & non-ferrous metals, aseptic containers, mixed plastics, glass, organic material, residue etc.) and any other material types to be determined together with the City; f) How the quality of each material type will be sorted and evaluated against current and forecasted industry end markets and analysis of the salability; g) A strategy to ensure that if any “other” material type accounts for more than 10% (by weight) of the total fine material sample (per waste stream) to further categorize it into additional material types; and h) Recommendations for any other material type categories to better understand the residual waste composition characteristics to inform the MWPwOR study.
The successful Proponent will work with City staff to finalize a final detailed work plan and report structure for Task 2.
The Proponent is responsible for executing and overseeing the Waste Characterization Study including covering the costs of and arranging for any equipment needed to perform the test (i.e. trommel screens, staffing, etc.), any permitting (Environmental Compliance Approval permits or amendments, if required) and health and safety training for any staff. The Proponent will not be reimbursed for arranging for any equipment needed to perform the test ((i.e. trommel screens, staffing, laboratory analysis etc.), any permitting (Environmental Compliance Approval permits or amendments, if required) and health and safety training for any staff above and beyond what is outlined in their Proposal.
A final Waste Characterization Study report must include, but not be limited to the following: a) The agreed upon methodology, observations and pictures; b) A comprehensive analysis of the waste characterization results; c) Comments on the ability of existing City organics facilities or contracted facilities to manage any the sorted fine material based on laboratory test results; d) Comments on the marketability of the recovered major material types based on the current and anticipated acceptable end market quality; e) Comments on how the time of year that Characterization Study is taking place may impact the report results in terms of seasonality; and f) Impacts or considerations to the Waste Projections Forecasting.
Deliverables The reports and results for all work carried out in Task 1 – Waste Projections Forecasting and the Waste Characterization Study must be presented in Technical Memorandum #1.
It must also include:
a) A recommendation for up to 4 (four) probable Feedstock compositions from the waste streams above for MWPwOR Pilot Test(s). b) The probable Feedstock compositions must include both a size profile and projected tonnage breakdown by major material type based on the Waste Characterization Study results. c) A preliminary scan of potential end markets for recovered resources (i.e. Blue Bin Recyclables or other resources) post MWPwOR processing and any commodity market trend considerations; d) Recommendations for any further areas of study as it relates to waste characterization for MWPwOR such as any additional of waste composition audit material type categories, further study on size and waste characterization or other data gaps/points that can be measured in future studies, including energy potential of in any remaining residual waste; e) An executive summary of Task 1 f) A submission of all raw and analyzed data and working papers that is collected and reviewed to create Technical Memorandum #1; and g) A comprehensive analysis and comment on the ability of existing City organics facilities to manage any identified organic fraction in the Waste Characterization Study.

  
 

Leave a Reply