All text from Eco.on.ca site
We could have carbon free electricity in Ontario in 2014! – Environmental Commissioner of Ontario
Recent extreme weather events in the west and in Toronto have highlighted the reality of the new and changing global climate. Sooner or later Ontario will have to be prepared to contribute further to the global reductions of greenhouse gas emissions. Once again and for the last time I will acknowledge that the closure of the coal plants (now almost complete) was a courageous political act that gives Ontario credibility in international climate change discussions. But that credibility will quickly fade if there is no continued effort to mitigate the problem.
But, there may be such an opportunity created by the ongoing efforts in electricity conservation and support for renewable generation. I have looked at the most recent 18-month outlook of the Independent Electricity System Operator and if I am reading their forecast correctly, the potential to generate electricity in Ontario will look something like the following by August 2014:
Predicted Electricity Generation Capacity August 2014
Nuclear 12800 MW
Hydro 5700 MW
Coal 300 MW
Wind 4300 MW
Biomass 338 MW
Solar 180MW
Total ~33000MW
In reality, we never need 33,000 MWs and neither could we actually produce it except at times when the wind is blowing constantly and the sun is shining. But those sunny, windy conditions do occur and, hence, there is an opportunity. Peak demand in these times is well below the generation potential. A typical summer day now peaks at around 22,000 MW. Could we manage it without carbon emissions?
Let’s examine the scenario of a windy, sunny, not-too-hot summer day across Ontario in August of 2014, exclude imports of power and consider just what we produce here in the province. We’ll also assume that transmission constraints don’t limit our ability to move power around the province as needed. Nuclear generation will be there to the level of about 12,800 MW. We could choose not to fire the remaining coal capacity. Wind could provide say 4000 MW during windy hours of a windy day and solar could yield say 160 MW at mid-day. Biomass will be providing a constant 330 MW. If we don’t call any natural gas generation we would be about 4,700 MW short but that is well below the 5700 MW of hydro capacity the IESO estimates is available from hydro generation in summer flow conditions. So we could in theory be carbon free in electricity generation in Ontario in 2014 at least for some hours under ideal conditions – a very cool concept.
Regrettably, however, current contracts make it impossible. Most newer gas-fired generation would be priced out of the market under the above conditions, and so would not be operating. However, about 1000 MW of gas-fired generation is under contract to non-utility generators in this province who burn gas continuously 24/7 if they want to and they typically do. So, it is nice to think about the possibility of carbon free electrical generation but until we build that option into the structure of our long-term electricity plan it will not happen.
…………………………………………..
Recent Comments